AFIRE Annual Meeting Triumphs
In spite of the implications for
travel following one of the worst tragedies in American
history, AFIRE's 13th Annual Membership Meeting drew real
estate executives from five countries as AFIRE became the
first organization to host a conference at the Ritz-Carlton
since the events of September 11th.
This year's speakers provided an enormous
understanding of both worldwide economics and the implications
for real estate in the face of both September 11th and the
technology meltdown. Nationally and internationally recognized
economists described the shift in the US economic profile
from a more moderate "W" model to a very dramatic
"V" shaped scenario in which a sharper and deeper
decline through the first three to six months of 2002 would
be followed by a strong and rapid recovery over the following
six to nine months.
Dr. Martha Farnsworth Riche, a former
Director of the US Census, described the implications of
the recent census for real estate, and debunked some of
the commonly held theories related to multi-family project
development.
More than a week before it was published,
attendees received an advance report entitled "Korpacz
Real Estate Investor Survey: Special Report" by Peter
Korpacz, detailing specific cause-and-effect scenarios of
September 11th on the real estate market and its property
segments. Korpacz is Director and Global Head of the Strategic
Real Estate Research Group of PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Three experts dissected the high technology market, which
currently represents 7.5 percent of the GDP and is expected
to continue to grow. Forecasters delivered projections both
in terms of specific cities and prognoses for various sectors
of high technology including: manufacturing, hardware and
software; bio-technology, and medical / pharmaceutical.
Asserting that "dot.coms are dot.gones," Steve
Coyle, Director and Senior Strategist, Property & Portfolio
Research went on to say that the great majority of the high
tech sectors will recover with the nation, but ramp up more
slowly. There was much discussion about why economic forecasting
models needed to change, and how the impending downturn
in real estate erroneously appeared to be part of the "cycle"
but was indeed a precursor of things to come. Specific real
estate markets were dissected, and property types examined.
A summary of this program was aired six different times
on Bloomberg Radio on Saturday, October 20th.
This year for the first time the Association
also offered participants the choice of one of three concurrent
sessions, and all were well-attended. Sessions were offered
on Indirect Investments, Alternative Financing Strategies,
and Opportunity Funds.
During the conference, The Washington,
DC ABC News affiliate taped an interview with Jim Fetgatter,
AFIRE's chief executive, about the Association's meeting.
He said: "while the Association considered canceling
the meeting, the feeling among the Board was that this meeting
was particularly important in light of the impact of these
events on real estate." The piece was aired on the
Monday October 8th evening news.
From Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research
and Peter Hooper of Deutsche Bank Alex. Brown, the opening
speakers, to former British Prime Minister John Major, who
closed the meeting, there was a universal rallying cry to
"stop the terrorism." "Consumer confidence
is key to the recovery process, but people won't spend until
they see some positive events," said Peter Korpacz.
"We need a war on terrorism." And, Mr. Major,
in describing England's and its allies' commitment to stand
behind the United States in its fight against terrorism,
"whether it be for two weeks or ten years," brought
the room to its feet.
The Annual Meeting Digest, which contains
full transcripts, will be mailed to all members. Next year's
meeting will be held September 29 to October 1 at the Four
Seasons Hotel in San Francisco. We hope you will be able
to attend.
