We’ve entered a new era of geopolitics.
From globalization and free trade stabilized by American soft power, we’re now in a more transactional period characterized by nation states weaponizing their economies with tariffs, a global leadership vacuum and greater competition among the superpowers.
So should this affect cross-border investment strategies? And can earlier periods in history teach us lessons about what to expect in future?
Yes to both, says Jonathan Boff, who may be the perfect person to turn for guidance. Boff has a CV that straddles the domains of business and history, as a former investment banker who is now a professor of military history at the University of Birmingham.
“My instinct is that we need to be aware of over-catastrophizing too soon,” says Boff in conversation with AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson. Boff suggests looking for lessons in the period immediately after the First World War, when the world transitioned from global free trade to another era of tariffs and trade barriers.
In addition, Boff and Branson discuss the dangers represented by a weaker, more politically-beholden Federal Reserve, the need for more positive economic strategies; and the ways investors can prepare for highly unpredictable global events.
LINKS
Jonathan Boff’s book, Haig’s Enemy: Crown Prince Rupprecht and Germany’s War on the Western Front
Take the AFIRE H2 2025 investor survey
Register for the AFIRE Annual Member Meeting
Watch the AFIRE POV series of investor interviews
Read the latest articles from Summit Journal Issue #18
KEY MOMENTS
00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro
00:53 Meet Jonathan Boff, Professor of Military History, University of Birmingham
01:46 What should investors focus on amid global conflicts?
05:11 How do we connect politics and global economic interests?
15:34 What can we expect from US-implemented tariffs?
20:38 What should investors know about unpredictable international markets?
26:35 How should investors go about trusting the Fed?32:43 What most get wrong about military conflicts’ economic impact
DISCLAIMER
The publisher of the AFIRE Podcast is not engaged in providing tax, accounting, or legal advice through this publication. No content published in the AFIRE Podcast is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Some information included in the AFIRE Podcast has been obtained from third-party sources considered to be reliable, though the publisher is not responsible for guaranteeing the accuracy of third-party information. The opinions expressed in the AFIRE Podcast are those of its respective contributors and sources and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher.
The AFIRE Podcast with Gunnar Branson is the official, multiple-award-winning podcast of AFIRE, the association for international real estate investors focused on commercial property in the United States.
Hosted by AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson, the podcast features informative and in-depth conversations with experts across the full spectrum of real estate, investment, sustainability, economics, geopolitics, and urbanism with a focus on helping each other become Better Investors, Better Leaders, and Better Global Citizens. To learn more, visit afire.org/podcast
QUESTIONS?
Benjamin van Loon, Communications Director
bvanloon@afire.org | +1 202 312 1405