AFIRE Podcast 2025.13: Averting Polycrisis with Michael Neiberg

Geopolitics is rewriting the rules for commercial real estate investors.

Can understanding history’s patterns be the key to figuring out what’s coming next?

Who better to answer the question than Chair of War Studies at the U.S. Army War College, Michael Neiberg, who uses his expertise of Europe and the U.S. from 1914-1945 to offer valuable insights into today’s global challenges by drawing parallels with the early 20th century.

“What we’re dealing with now is not the same as other time periods,” Neiberg explains when discussing some of the economic parallels of the 1930s, which can “lead you down some pretty terrifying places, if you let them.” Instead, Neiberg shares some comforting news: “We are in some ways reverting to the norm.”

This episode of the AFIRE podcast helps investors and strategists rethink their approaches amid a world that’s far less predictable than it once was.

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. 

LINKS

Take the AFIRE H2 2025 investor survey
Register for the AFIRE Annual Member Meeting
Watch the AFIRE POV series of investor interviews
Read the latest articles from Summit Journal Issue #18

KEY MOMENTS

00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro
01:23 Meet Michael Neiberg, Chair of War Studies, US Army War College
02:23 How does today’s pullback compare to the 20th century?
05:52 How should investors handle less free global trade?
09:13 How have politics and economics connected?
11:38 Important lessons from early 20th-century tech
12:59 How is governance changing?
15:45 Does history show that communication is key?

DISCLAIMER

The publisher of the AFIRE Podcast is not engaged in providing tax, accounting, or legal advice through this publication. No content published in the AFIRE Podcast is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Some information included in the AFIRE Podcast has been obtained from third-party sources considered to be reliable, though the publisher is not responsible for guaranteeing the accuracy of third-party information. The opinions expressed in the AFIRE Podcast are those of its respective contributors and sources and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher.

The AFIRE Podcast with Gunnar Branson is the official, multiple-award-winning podcast of AFIRE, the association for international real estate investors focused on commercial property in the United States.

Hosted by AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson, the podcast features informative and in-depth conversations with experts across the full spectrum of real estate, investment, sustainability, economics, geopolitics, and urbanism with a focus on helping each other become Better Investors, Better Leaders, and Better Global Citizens. To learn more, visit afire.org/podcast