The AFIRE International Investor Survey has been a useful barometer of global institutional sentiment for US real estate for more than thirty years, the results from the latest survey are no different.
Though the survey’s respondents may be predisposed to favor US real estate, based on the longstanding mission of AFIRE, they are still beholden to their core fiduciary responsibilities, which includes an ongoing assessment of their financial decisions weighed against the values and intentions of their investors.
As such, despite the continued economic uncertainties and geopolitical rebalancing that defined 2025—and which determines how the rest of this year (and beyond) will shape up—some of the results of the latest AFIRE survey, conducted during the final month of 2025, occasionally run counter to current market assumptions, affirming continued in confidence in US real estate—with some important qualifications.
THE GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE US
As shown in Exhibit 1, respondents indicate that the continued performance, technological innovation, and global connectivity of America’s coastal gateway markets are an inexorable point of appeal for ongoing global investment into the US.
These are the self-same markets evincing the demographic and demand fundamentals necessary for investment justification as such, as shown in Exhibits 4 and 5.
Similarly, and relative to other global regions, the US ranks the highest as a safe/very safe destination for investment in 2026, as shown in Exhibit 2.
Around 40% of respondents indicate that the US is “very safe,” and nearly the full remainder mark it as “safe.”
But as these results reflect changes in sentiment about geopolitical rebalancing in general, other global regions have increased their relative “safety” in kind. Australia and New Zealand, continental Europe, and Canada have all seen notable increases in safety, while the Asia-Pacific region in general remains stable from 2025.
Latin America and the Middle East, meanwhile, have seen some minor declines in perceived safety.
GLOBAL INVESTMENT PLANS
The growth or diminishment of perceived safety in these regions is underscored by one of the more important and perennial questions covered in the survey: what are your expectations for how your firm will direct its property investments, both within and outside the US, in the coming year. Exhibits 3 and 4 reflect that 2026 will see increased investments in real assets globally, though the rationale for increases and decreases varies by region.
As shown in Exhibit 4, 2026 will see an increased investment into non-US regions, compared to both 2025 and 2024. Respondents cite diversification, portfolio rebalancing, and the ever-present search of stable returns, as the leading criteria for non-US investments.
And as shown in Exhibit 5, respondents indicate a growth of investments into the US in 2026, as well, with a larger share (28%) citing stable returns as the leading criteria for these ambitions. Diversification (30%) and portfolio rebalancing (19%) are similarly strong drivers, while those indicating a decrease in US investments are citing a three-way tie between climate risks, regulatory uncertainties, and general portfolio rebalancing.
RANKING THE RISKS
Despite this optimism, the respondents are not unaware of the current risks facing US investments.
Nearly 45% of respondents, for example, indicated that they are likely to adjust their US real estate investment strategies over the next twelve months as a result of the evolving (and increasingly unpredictable) financial and regulatory landscape in the US, as shown in Exhibit 6.
As shown in Exhibit 7, these regulatory uncertainties also rank as the second-most “major” risk facing US investment in 2026, with nearly 50% of respondents indicating these uncertainties as such, and another 35% assigning a minor but notable risk to this area.
But topping the list of all risks, black and gray swan events claim nearly 95% of all such risks in the coming year.
Black swan events are a persistent risk, even during times of relative peace, largely because they represent mostly unforeseeable and thus unquantifiable (such as a global pandemic or a multi-state energy grid blackout).
But many of the forecasted “events” in 2026 in in a lighter shade of gray. That is, we are certain of ongoing economic uncertainty; we are certain of geopolitical rebalancing, but not always who or what gets favored in these shifts; we are certain that weather and climate events will strike, but not of their total scale or duration.
But we are aware these all of these things, together, represent the greatest risk to real estate in 2026.
And interestingly, while questions around valuation and interest rates are always a concern for real estate investors, they rank at the very bottom of the risk list for the year ahead.
A CLOSER LOOK AT US MARKETS
Despite the risks—or perhaps because of them—this year’s ranking of the top US cities for investment, and the general market outlook across gateway, secondary, and tertiary markets, reflects a more careful approach, as outlined in Exhibit 8.
New York reclaims the top spot after slipping to second post in 2025, swapping places with Dallas. Atlanta holds its place in the fifth spot, and Miami also holds its place in the top five, but dropping slightly to fourth choice, as San Francisco claims third place.
After struggling with high office vacancy rates since the pandemic, “bargain” properties and the ongoing AI boom have positioned San Francisco for stabilization and renewal. (The same can be said for both Raleigh and Washington, DC, as well, which both climbed into the top ten for 2026 after ranking at #12 and #13 last year, respectively.)
These rankings are underscored by the more generalized outlook forecasting outperformance in US gateway and coastal markets, with a bit more caution around secondary and tertiary US markets—consistent with historical expectations.
While the growth or renewed attention in some of these markets—especially San Francisco and Washington, DC—can be attributed to the AI and data center boom, there remains a persistent skepticism about the sustainability of this boom.
Many of the leading headlines in 2025 predicted a major bust in the AI sector, but so far, those prophecies have been deferred, and the general sentiment among two thirds of AFIRE survey respondents is that—bubble or not—CRE portfolios aren’t too exposed to AI, as shown in Exhibit 9.
These insights are affirmed at the property level, as well, as shown in in Exhibit 10. Multifamily remains a favored asset type for the year ahead, with nearly 50% of respondents forecasting an increase in investments in this area.
This is down from nearly 70% in 2025, though forecasted increases for almost all property types in 2026 are slightly lower than 2025 outlooks. And office continues its struggles, but at a diminished pace, and the appetite for single-family rentals has diminished for 2026 compared to last year, as well.
As it relates to both market preference and property-level investments, respondents were asked how significantly metro- or state-level policies that support housing development density and development inform their investment decisions. Respondents could select that these regulations significantly inform, moderately inform, or do not inform their investments.
While it’s notable that 57% of respondents indicate that housing regulations significantly inform their investment decisions (and 43% say these regulations moderately inform their investments), zero respondents indicated that housing regulations have no bearing on their investments.
INFRASTRUCTURE AND ECONOMIC STRESS
Following AFIRE’s sustained conversation in 2025 about energy and infrastructure in the US, respondents were also asked to rank how various layers of infrastructure inform their market- and property-level plans for US investments in the year ahead, as shown in Exhibit 12. Internet and digital connectivity top the list, at nearly 90% importance, which is consistent with the favored asset types detailed in Exhibit 10.
Transportation and logistics and climate-resilient infrastructure are tied in terms of total importance, at around 85%, though climate-resilient infrastructure (and water availability) lead in terms of maximum importance for infrastructure.
While these various layers of infrastructure have a marked impact on investment decision-making, investors are also contending with the reality of “economic infrastructure” in the US. The consumer-level inflation of the past several years has continued apace or even accelerated in the past year. US employment and GDP data has become partial and editorialized, making it less reliable as an objective measure of economic health. And US debt continues to grow, putting increased stress on homeowners.
As shown in Exhibit 14, US households are running out of room. Investors believe that nearly 60% of households are either at the breaking point, or facing one more price spike, before they are compelled to downsize or relocate. These data, coupled with the omnipresent realities and challenges of climate change, could lead to a very different picture of favored markets and property types in the years ahead.
LOANS AND DEBT
Over the past several years, commercial real estate prognosticators have forecasted a coming storm of maturing debt in real estate for 2026, so the survey asked respondents if (and how) they are handling their own loans for the coming year, as shown in Exhibit 15.
Around 53% of respondents are holding debt that is indeed expiring in the coming year, and nearly two thirds of those with maturing debt (63%) are planning to refinance those loans. Another 27% will be extending or modifying their loans, and only 5% have plans to pay off those loans. These numbers differ from how those firms without maturing loans in 2026 (33%) forecast how the industry will be treating maturing loans in general, with nearly 60% expecting some form of extension or modification.
Similarly, as shown in Exhibit 16, there do not seem to be any major plans for firms to shift from equity to debt (or vice versa) in the year ahead. Nearly 75% of firms are making no changes to their debt and equity balance, with 11% shifting some equity to debt, and another 11% shifting the other direction. Preferred equity is the favored option by far, followed by various forms of senior and mezzanine debt.
BEYOND 2026
While the AFIRE survey emphasizes some informed optimism about the future of investment into the US, it’s important to recognize how the national political atmosphere in the US (and resulting volatility in the geopolitical climate) is forcing some investors to rethink strategy and risk. For example, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s remarks at Davos in January 2026 give new gravitas to the concept of former “middle powers” (e.g. Canada, Australia, India, etc.) on a global scale. Some of these nations have been longtime investors into the US, and their decisions in the years ahead—based on some of the insights and forecasts contained in this survey—may very well set the next precedent for the coming era of global investment, and where the US will continue to fit into the mix.
ISSUE #20:
ASSOCIATE SPONSOR
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CONTENTS
Note from the Editor: Issue #20
Benjamin van Loon | AFIRE
AFIRE Investor Survey: The Case for US Real Estate in 2026
Benjamin van Loon | AFIRE
The Data Center Pipeline: Is it a Boom, or a Bubble?
Scot Bommarito, William Maher, Andrew Janko, Amber Hughes | RCLCO Fund Advisors
Autonomous Intelligence and the Global CIO: Formalizing Conviction in a Fragmented Market
Francis Huang | Apers AI
A Home Genome Project: How a City Learning Cohort Can Create AI Systems for Optimizing Housing Supply
Brookings
How C-PACE (and Stretch PACE) are Rewiring Global Real Estate Finance for the Energy Transition
Jonathan Seabolt | Clearwater PACE
Solar Wave: Community Solar is Set to Transform Lease Income
Michael Sanduski | Lumen Energy
Trade Winds Redraw: US Tariffs and Commercial Real Estate
Stewart Rubin and Marshall Swett | New York Life Real Estate Investors
The Complexity Premium: Leveraging the Alpha Opportunity in Regulated Gateway Cities
Donal Warde | Consultant + Richard Cadena | Bank Hapoalim (BHI) + Wenpeng Ding | Zicklin School of Business
NYC Office Recovery: Repricing Physical Infrastructure in the Age of AI
Scott Crowe | RXR
Beyond Motivation: Why Invest in US Affordable Housing? And Why Now?
Deborah La Franchi | SDS Capital Group
Build-to-Rent: Redefining Housing for Renters and Investors
Paul Kolevsohn, Alex Lachman, Lev Kling-Bronstein | Stockbridge + Don Walker, Kevin Cody | John Burns Real Estate Consulting
Inflation Fighters: The Case for Mission-Critical NNN
EJ Wislar | PRP Real Assets
Private Apartment Equity or Private Debt: Comparing Investment Performance of the Two Quadrants
Gleb Nechayev | Berkshire Residential Investments
Meet Them Where They Are: National Demand Landscape Survey
Kevin Hudak and Michael Broder | RCKRBX
REIT Puts and Calls: Public Market Signals for Private Real Estate Investors
William Pattison, Michael Steinberg, Carsten Raaum, Kiel Deitrich, Jacob Kurosaki | MetLife Investment Management
Modernizing Management: How Structural Shifts in Real Estate are Rebalancing the GP and LP Relationship
Finn DuComb-Festor and Miles Treaster | Cushman & Wakefield
Clarifying Vision: Exploring the Dynamics of Slowing Capital Flows
Cliff Booth | Westmount Realty Capital
DISCLAIMER
The publisher of Summit is not engaged in providing tax, accounting, or legal advice through this publication. No content published in Summit is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Some information included in Summit has been obtained from third-party sources considered to be reliable, though the publisher is not responsible for guaranteeing the accuracy of third-party information. The opinions expressed in Summit are those of its respective contributors and sources and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher.
NOTES
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Benjamin van Loon is the Editor-in-Chief of Summit Journal.
ASSOCIATE SPONSOR |
HAWTHORNE RESIDENTIAL PARTNERS
Hawthorne Residential Partners is a vertically integrated owner, operator, and developer of Sunbelt Multifamily and Build-to- Rent product. The firm has acquired or developed 25K+ units since inception and currently manages 58K+ units across eight states. Hawthorne partners with institutions on a single-asset and programmatic basis.
Karen is the head of acquisitions for Allianz Real Estate, and has worked to invest in more than $25 billion of unlisted institutional real estate over the past 20 years. The first half of her career was oriented toward closed-end value-add and opportunistic fund investments in office, retail and multi-family assets across continental Europe. Since 2011, Karen has primarily focused on core and core-plus commercial investments in US gateway markets.
