Despite geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions, the US economy remains strong, says our latest guest on the AFIRE podcast: Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi, the recipient of the Consensus Economics 2024 Forecast Accuracy Award.
“So far, the data shows yellow flares everywhere,” Zandi observes. “But no red flares yet.”
In conversation with AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson, Zandi shares his views on the way trade tensions will affect the broader economy, as well as US commercial real estate specifically.
The pair also discuss a forthcoming Moody’s study on the housing shortage, hotspots in the US CRE market and how ESG and DEI discussions are evolving under the new administration. The conversation concludes with Zandi worrying that the dissolution of Fed independence could set the stage for much higher inflation.
“I do think the economy is resilient,” Zandi says. “We should be able to navigate through and, you know, we could be in a very different place a year or two down the road.”
Links
AFIRE Q1 2025 Pulse Report
Mark Zandi’s own podcast, Moody’s Talks – Inside Economics
Mario Draghi’s report on EU competitiveness
Accountability ESG report
Key Moments
00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro.
01:51 Branson introduces Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics.
02:26 Shouldn’t a positive outlook on the U.S. economy be enough?
05:23 What will come of the U.S.’s trade agreement with China?
08:12 Will China continue benefiting from U.S. demands?
09:57 Zandi answers when he believes things will “go back to normal.”
12:21 Should there be a reconfiguration of the supply coming through Long Beach?
16:17 The correlations between international investors and the universities that expats attend.
25:14 Predicting when international investing in the U.S. will open up again?
27:37 Zandi suggests where to look to get hints on where things are going.
33:15 How the language around ESG or DEI is changing.
35:42 In which areas is affordability an ongoing issue?
39:49 What are people getting wrong about U.S. CRE right now?
DISCLAIMER
The publisher of the AFIRE Podcast is not engaged in providing tax, accounting, or legal advice through this publication. No content published in the AFIRE Podcast is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Some information included in the AFIRE Podcast has been obtained from third-party sources considered to be reliable, though the publisher is not responsible for guaranteeing the accuracy of third-party information. The opinions expressed in the AFIRE Podcast are those of its respective contributors and sources and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher.
The AFIRE Podcast with Gunnar Branson is the official, multiple-award-winning podcast of AFIRE, the association for international real estate investors focused on commercial property in the United States.
Hosted by AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson, the podcast features informative and in-depth conversations with experts across the full spectrum of real estate, investment, sustainability, economics, geopolitics, and urbanism with a focus on helping each other become Better Investors, Better Leaders, and Better Global Citizens. To learn more, visit afire.org/podcast
QUESTIONS?
Benjamin van Loon, Communications Director
bvanloon@afire.org | +1 202 312 1405