ACCORDING TO PLANS
With the worst parts of the pandemic behind us—and political and economic fallout continuing to challenge us—it’s clear that this is no longer the world that was.
But we’re not yet in the world to be, either.
Instead, we’re somewhere in-between.
This issue of Summit Journal (our eleventh issue to date and our last issue of 2022) is a reflection of this point in time. Our contributors, from all sides of the industry, are looking to the past for cues to the future, but definitive answers to our current challenges—inflation, supply and demand, geopolitics, climate change—are still obscured by the fog of uncertainty.
This uncertainty is putting a different sort of pressure on real estate values. At the time of this writing, some of the largest and most well-capitalized real estate funds in the US are limiting what investors can withdraw. Other funds are stemming outflows, as investors track weakening demand for office space, and as rent growth slows in apartments and other sectors.
But AFIRE members, representing a notable sample of global institutional investors, and the contributors to this journal, still see bright points and long-term opportunities in US real estate—even if it takes a mix of art and faith to reach those insights. For example, CBRE Investment Management, which is also graciously serving as the sponsor for this issue, suggests that the solution for some of our current industry challenges could be found by prioritizing investments with a promise of positive social change (p. 10). Similarly, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson provides a renewed challenge to the real estate industry, following years of advancements in sustainability (p. 6).
The other articles and research in this issue runs the gamut on market selection (Aegon Asset Management, p. 32); asset pricing (Barings Real Estate, p. 40); evolving trends in supply and demand (JLL, p. 96); challenges in operating expenditure (Berkshire Residential Investments, p. 60); and differences in office performance across US markets (RCLCO, p. 46). New York Life Real Estate Investors shares a white paper looking at post-pandemic economics effects in “sand state” markets (p. 68), and we’re also proud to include a recent article from PwC on the future path of long-term interest rates in the US (p. 22).
Together, the ideas presented by the contributors to this issue—alongside the guiding voice of the Summit Journal Editorial Board (whose comments append several of the articles found herein)—don’t quite promise sure-fire solutions. But they showcase how our industry is thinking at this point in time: a community finding its way through the fog.
– Benjamin van Loon, Editor-in-Chief, Summit Journal
IN THIS ISSUE:
With the case for sustainability already well-established, how can (and should) real estate continue to lead?
Gunnar Branson | AFIRE
In addition to offering inflation protection and lower volatility, real estate also offers something that other asset classes can’t: the opportunity to invest in tangible, positive change.
Shane Taylor | CBRE Investment Management
The future path of long-term interest rates in the US and why it matters.
Alexis Crow, PhD | PwC
Amidst myriad global economic and geopolitical uncertainties, US commercial real estate has an even greater challenge ahead: demographics.
Martha S. Peyton and Caitlin Ritter | Aegon Asset Management
The sooner we can recognize that values have come down collectively—even beyond the office sector—the sooner we can move forward to capitalizing on new opportunities.
Dags Chen, CFA | Barings Real Estate
Even as the US office sector has lagged other property types, there could be an important (and valuable) difference of office performance based on property age and market.
William Maher and Scot Bommarito | RCLCO
Workers spending less time in the office post-pandemic may seem negative for the office sector, but a four-day workweek can be a boon for some office property owners.
Kevin Fagan, Xiaodi Li, and Natalie Ambrosio Preudhomme | Moody’s
A close-in look at twenty major US metros and thousands of properties shows how the overall impact of rising expense loads have narrowed NOI margins. Investors should take note.
Gleb Nechayev, CRE and Webster Hughes, PhD | Berkshire Residential Investments
In the wake of the Great FinancialCrisis, certain metros in the Sand States suffered disproportionally. It may not be as bad this time.
Stewart Rubin and Dakota Firenze | New York Life Real Estate Investors
Not all storms are the same, and some are so tragic that they force a moment of universal recalibration. Hurricane Ian was one of those storms—but what does that mean for real estate?
Rajeev Ranade and Owen Woolcock | Climate Core Capital
The Asia-Pacific region is already home to some of the world’s largest economies and now set to lead global economic growth. What’s moving the needle now for the APAC region?
Simon Treacy and Yu Jin Ow | CapitaLand Investment
For e-commerce property investors, the past decade was outstanding, but even as market dynamics are slowing industrial’s momentum, market fundamentals remain sound.
Mehta Randhawa | JLL
THIS ISSUE OF SUMMIT JOURNAL IS PROUDLY SUPPORTED BY
Our focus on delivering results is driven by our values, entrepreneurial spirit and our clients’ diverse needs. Together, our team specializes in holistic real assets solutions within and across five real assets investment categories, with a distinct approach to driving performance and long-term value.
CBRE Investment Management is a leading global real assets investment management firm with $143.9 billion in assets under management as of September 30, 2022, operating in more than 30 offices and 20 countries around the world. Through its investor-operator culture, the firm seeks to deliver sustainable investment solutions across real assets categories, geographies, risk profiles and execution formats so that its clients, people and communities thrive.
CBRE Investment Management is an independently operated affiliate of CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE:CBRE), the world’s largest commercial real estate services and investment firm (based on 2021 revenue). CBRE has more than 105,000 employees (excluding Turner & Townsend employees) serving clients in more than 100 countries. CBRE Investment Management harnesses CBRE’s data and market insights, investment sourcing and other resources for the benefit of its clients. For more information, please visit cbreim.com.